SENAT
Report n° 117 (2007-2008) by M. Roland COURTEAU, Senator (for the parliament office for the evaluation of scientific and technological choices) - Appendix to the minutes of the 7 December 2007 session
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c) In the Mediterranean
In the Mediterranean, France is exposed to both regional tsunamis from Algeria and local tsunamis provoked by earthquakes in the Liguria Sea or a landslide in the zone between Nice and Vintimille. Having to deal with short reaction times, the national tsunami warning centre, in order to be effective, is best managed by a scientific body capable of refining a regional warning message 59 ( * ) in less than 15 minutes, 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, and then transmitting it to the COGIC ("Operational Interministerial Crisis Management Centre") and, if need be, the regional and local civil-protection authorities.
CEA is best suited to taking charge of this mission, because it is already responsible for notifying the French authorities in the event of an earthquake with a magnitude of greater than 4 on national territory, it hosts the European-Mediterranean Seismological Centre, and it serves as a benchmark for tsunami simulations and evaluation and the management of tsunami warnings in French Polynesia. As France is vulnerable to tsunamis in several basins, we can expect the future national warning centre to manage warnings for the Mediterranean, the Caribbean 60 ( * ) and the Indian Ocean.
Furthermore, because it must receive all the data from the various seismic and sea-level measurement stations (tide gauges and tsunamimeters), it could also act as the regional tsunami warning centre, although the national authorities would remain ultimately responsible for the issuance of tsunami warnings.
During the international conference held in Nice in February 2005, the then Minister of Ecology, Serge Lepeltier, stated that the European-Mediterranean Seismological Centre represented "a structure predisposed to playing a major role in the elaboration and implementation of a warning system in the Mediterranean basin."
In April 2006, the then Minister of the Interior, Nicolas Sarkozy, asked the general director of CEA if this body could act as the regional tsunami warning centre for the Mediterranean. CEA replied in the affirmative 61 ( * ) , so long as it was provided with the necessary human and financial means.
Concretely, CEA's proposal referred to two types of expenditure:
- The initial funding costs (€2.7 million for CEA). For the most part, this money covers: the adaptation of several CEA seismic stations; the acquisition of a GTS-reception system; the development of high-speed seismic computer programs (2-6 mins.); the integration of data-reception and GTS-message programs, as well as programs for the real-time visualization of sea-level data; the development of programs for gathering data from non-CEA seismic stations. This sum does not cover the seismic equipment of those stations set up outside France, with the exception of the VSAT antennas, updating the Madeira station (in partnership with the University of Lisbon), and setting up a seismic station in the Azores. The costs linked to the installation of 20 tide gauges and 6 tsunamimeters are estimated at €2.4 million. 62 ( * )
- The operating costs (€3.5 million). A large part of this sum covers supplementary personnel expenditures linked to the setting up of a team on duty 24 hours a day. This amount also covers: the cost of VSAT transmissions and the maintenance of the related equipment; the maintenance and updating of the means for processing and issuing tsunami warnings; database storage; the updating of scenarii modelling; participating in the meetings organized by the ICG/NEAMTWS. The cost of maintaining the tide gauges and tsunamimeters is estimated at €310,000 per year.
However, since CEA's technical proposal was officially submitted to the concerned ministries 63 ( * ) in November 2006, no concrete negotiation has been opened. While it is true that several meetings have been held at the technical-service level, they were unable to succeed. Indeed, up until the Lisbon session of 20-23 November 2007, no political decision had been made concerning the nature and funding of the French contribution to the tsunami warning system, leaving such fundamental questions as the following unanswered:
- Is France - via CEA/EMSC - ready to act as a regional tsunami warning centre for the Mediterranean and, if so, for which geographic zone 64 ( * ) ?
- If France does not want to act as a regional warning centre, will it nevertheless set up a national tsunami warning centre and, if so, what will be its structure?
- To what extent does France want to participate in updating its territory's existing tide gauges and installing tide gauges and tsunamimeters off the coast of Algeria to protect its coasts?
However, the uncertainties weighing on France's real contribution to the tsunami warning system for the Mediterranean have placed the French delegation in a particularly uncomfortable position: for lack of any specific ministerial directive and in the absence of funding dedicated to tsunami-risk prevention, the French delegation is unable to make any proposals which would commit France financially.
The representatives of the various administrations and bodies that make up the French delegation have therefore reached the limits of their competences: they were able to correctly complete their missions as long as the ICG/NEAMTWS meetings consisted of, on the one hand, listing the scientific work carried out with regard to tsunami evaluation and, on the other, quantitatively and qualitatively assessing each country's seismic and tide gauge measuring devices.
However, since the Bonn session, the project for a tsunami warning system for the Mediterranean has entered the implementation phase, with the member states now spending each new meeting presenting the concrete contributions they have made. For example, in Bonn, Italy announced that it would ensure the permanent collection and processing of seismic data from the seas surrounding Europe. The tsunami information bulletins would be issued by the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV).
On the other hand, the French scientific bodies refuse to make any commitments in the absence of any official directive or financial commitment on the part of their government. The question of updating France's tide gauges serves as a good example. SHOM manages 23 tide gauges in metropolitan France, including 5 in the Mediterranea sea; however, only Le Conquet tide gauge transmits its data in real-time. Insofar as updating its tide gauges to function in real-time does not constitute a priority for this body and no additional means have been accorded to SHOM to speed up the updating of its tide gauges and ensure that they remain operational, most data from France's tide gauges will not be useable in 2010, at which time the Mediterranean tsunami warning system is expected to be operational.
The fact that since the resignation last June of the former director of the Géoscience-Azur laboratory as acting National Contact, France has been unable to find a replacement testifies to the current log jam: unofficially, the members of the French delegation are unanimous in confirming that this mission should fall to CEA. Nevertheless, this body refuses to assume financial responsibility for this task and is therefore awaiting a commitment on the part of the French government to fund this mission.
Therefore, your rapporteur would like to point out that up until the Lisbon session, France was unable to not only specify its role within the future tsunami warning system in the Mediterranean, but also to designate its Focal Point (responsible for transmitting warning messages to the civil-protection services) and National Contact (responsible for representing France at meetings of the ICG/NEAMTWS). In addition, France's contribution to bringing the sea-level measurement devices up-to-date is hampered by a lack of funding.
Your rapporteur is nevertheless pleased with the evolution of the French position during the Lisbon session, which was held only two weeks prior to the adoption of this study by the Parliamentary Office for the Evaluation of Scientific and Technological Choices.
Before the fourth meeting of the ICG/NEAMTWS (21 to 23 November 2007), it seemed that France was once again off to a poor start, since only one day before the start of this session, the French delegation still had not received any directive from the government and was therefore preparing to maintain a low profile.
However, the head of the delegation finally received "certain indications" from the Prime Minister's departmental staff conveying a favourable evolution of French policy and the government's commitment to the setting up of a tsunami warning system.
Concretely, the French delegation announced France's interest in hosting a regional tsunami warning centre for the western Mediterranean and northeast Atlantic zones, in cooperation with the regional centre for the eastern Mediterranean.
It was therefore decided to create a task team 65 ( * ) to meet in January in order to determine the structure of the Mediterranean and northeast Atlantic warning systems, as well as the project's partners, implementation schedule and necessary budget and sources of funding.
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"Certain indications" «France would like to point out that during the Kobe Conference it committed itself to participating in the design and implementation of an oceanic, multi-risk monitoring and warning system within the framework of an international effort under the direction of the IOC. Considering the extent of its coastline, present in all of the planet's principal sea and ocean basins, risk prevention via the monitoring of natural hazards (especially marine events), whether of geophysical or meteorological origin, is today a major concern of France. Indeed, the perspectives announced by the scientific community with regard to global warming - resulting, in particular, in rising sea levels and more intense meteorological phenomena - necessitate an immediate and real mobilization, as well as a concerted effort, on the part of the concerned countries in the various basins. Therefore, France considers that it is today important to begin an incremental process in line with the international calendar proposed by the IOC, which is based on what is currently available (or will be within 3 to 4 years) and which deals, in particular, with coastal inundationing caused by oceanic phenomena of distant origin. In particular, with regard to the Mediterranean and northeast Atlantic basins, France does not underestimate the decisive role it must play, considering, firstly, the extent and diversity of its coastline and the variety of natural hazards to which it is exposed and, secondly, the collaborative agreements (in particular, the emergency-assistance agreements) which it has passed with several other coastal countries. In addition, France is competent in the domains of seismology, geophysics and meteorology. France cannot act alone, but must work in partnership with other countries sharing this same set of problems. Indeed, this is a European-Mediterranean project that, due to its complexity and costs, requires a sharing of strengths and means in which the European Union must also assume its full responsibility - in particular, with regard to its programmes relative to the environment and security. It is in this context that France manifests its interest to host a regional tsunami monitoring centre - specifically, for the western Mediterranean and northeastern Atlantic zone - as its contribution to NEAMTWS. This centre would work in close partnership with the eastern Mediterranean centre. Remaining in permanent contact, these two centres would be able to replace each other if needed; they would issue their bulletins directly to the national authorities in charge of spreading the alert. For this collaborative effort to succeed and in order to set up a global European-Mediterranean project by mid-2008, France proposes that a task team be formed starting in January (the exact date to be fixed in Lisbon). This team would add a political section to the project's scientific and technical dimension. Its mission would be: - to define the structure, means and partners of the monitoring centre for the western Mediterranean and northeast Atlantic; - to establish a calendar for the centre's creation and activation; - to assess the costs of the different stages of the project and to examine the conceivable contributions; - to consider the possible and ultimately probable contributions of the observation and monitoring systems that already exist or are being developed. This task team would present the results of its study during the next meeting of the ICG/NEAMTWS, by identifying, in particular, the initial funding necessary for the creation of a monitoring and warning "kernel" to address the European-Mediterranean and international concerns with regard to coastal risks of oceanic origin. Finally, France suggests that this task team be led by CEA, considering this body's experience in the Pacific Ocean and the fact that it hosts the European-Mediterranean Seismological Centre. |
* 59 As has already been mentioned, the regional warning message will rely on a decision matrix that can nevertheless prove to be somewhat unsuitable at the local level. For instance, Antibes is a more tsunami-vulnerable zone than Nice due to its relief and bathymetry. Likewise, harbours are more vulnerable to tsunamis due to the currents and eddies they produce.
* 60 At least regional and tele-tsunamis. To handle local tsunamis, the warning system must be automated via automatically-activated sirens.
* 61 For regional-tsunami warnings; in other words, with a reaction time of at least a half hour.
* 62 These costs could be partially mutualized within the framework of a yet-to-be-defined European funding programme.
* 63 The Ministry of Ecology and Sustainable Development, the Ministry of the Interior and the Overseas Territories, and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
* 64 It would seem that at least three warning centres will be created: one for tsunamis from the Atlantic, one for tsunamis from the eastern Mediterranean and one for tsunamis from the western Mediterranean.
* 65 This team will include all countries concerned by this proposal, the Steering Committee of the ICG/NEAMTWS and the chairmen of the 4 working groups, as well as representatives of other organizations, such as the European Commission, the World Meteorological Organization and the European-Mediterranean Seismological Centre. It will be co-presided over by France and the United Kingdom.