SENAT
Report n° 117 (2007-2008) by M. Roland COURTEAU, Senator (for the parliament office for the evaluation of scientific and technological choices) - Appendix to the minutes of the 7 December 2007 session
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B. A MOVEMENT THAT IS RUNNING OUT OF STEAM, DUE TO THE LACK OF A STRATEGIC VISION AND INSUFFICIENT FUNDING
The difference is striking between the ambitions put forward by the French government in 2005 with regard to setting warning systems in the various basins and the meager results that have been achieved two years later.
1. The observed hurdles
In reality, France's initial commitment has given way to a wait-and-see policy revealing various internal blockages.
a) In the Indian Ocean
The Indian Ocean is the only basin for which the French contribution has been the subject of a detailed action plan and which has benefited from a subsidy of over €2 million. 54 ( * ) Nevertheless, two years after the programme's launch, the results do not meet the project's initial expectations.
The initial plan called for setting up a national tsunami warning centre capable of monitoring both regional and local tsunamis. Because of its volcanic and seismic experience and skills, IPGP was meant to collaborate closely with the Météo France centre to ensure the tsunami warnings. However, this ambitious project quickly encountered funding difficulties. Indeed, the subvention allocated to the French contribution to the Indian Ocean warning system only includes equipment funding. However, the warning system that was initially proposed required that both Météo France and IPGP remain on-call 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, which its operating budget simply did not cover.
In addition, Météo France questioned the pertinence of extending the national warning centre's capacities to the issuance of local tsunami warnings, estimating that the appropriateness of such an action should first be studied. However, neither CEA nor IPGP was assigned with carrying out such a study and it seems that the project has been abandoned.
As is also the case in the West Indies, Météo France currently receives the warning messages issued by PTWC and JMA, which it then forwards to the prefect. As a result, the €305,000 set aside for developing the national warning centre's capacities in order to render it operational in the event of a local tsunami have yet to be spent (although their reallocation has not yet been discussed).
Furthermore, the French contribution is far behind schedule in up-to-dating and installing the tide gauges entrusted to SHOM. In a document prepared by the National Committee of the IOC on the funding of the French contribution to the Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning System (IOTWS), dated 29 June 2005, this action is qualified as being " one of the IOC's most important, in terms of both its symbolic importance and the credibility of the IOTWS ." However, only a single real-time tide gauge has so far been installed (La Réunion, October 2007), even though there is available funding.
Neither the real-time tide gauge planned for Mayotte, nor that planned for Madagascar has been installed. According to the information provided by SHOM to your rapporteur, the Mayotte tide gauge should be up and running in 2008. However, no date has been fixed for the Madagascar tide gauge, because it has not been included among SHOM's official priorities.
As regards the Kerguelen tide gauge managed by LEGOS, it has been brought updated along with the GEOSCOPE seismic station managed by the EOST in Strasbourg.
The updating of the GEOSCOPE network's seismic stations is also behind schedule, because only 2 out of the 5 initially planned stations 55 ( * ) transmit their data in real-time. IPGP has not yet installed a VSAT antenna on the Djibouti station, in order to allow it to receive data in real-time. According to the information obtained by your rapporteur, IPGP has also run up against India's refusal to transmit the data from its Hyderabad seismic station in real-time. Therefore, the plan to update this station has been abandoned, so as to instead install a station on Rodriguez Island. It has therefore been necessary to increase the funds allocated to IPGP to cover the expenses of this new mission. The Madagascar seismic station should be installed in March 2008; the site is ready and the material and equipment have been sent, but work cannot begin before the end of the rainy season. Less progress has been made in setting up the Rodriguez seismic station.
During a hearing, IPGP's director, Vincent Courtillot, estimated that updating the 3 older stations and installing the 2 new stations necessitated hiring the services of two engineers over a three-year period. He regretted that IPGP had been obligated to cover these expenses, for want of the planned operational subsidy. He also expressed his anxiety regarding the budgetary costs entailed by financing the VSAT transmissions.
An assessment of the funds allocation by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs for the creation of a national tsunami warning system leads us to the following conclusions:
- Of the €1.5 million allocated, €305,000 have yet to be spent, for want of a preliminary study on La Réunion's vulnerability to local tsunamis.
- Of the €1.1 million that have actually been spent, half were allocated to Météo France Internationale in order to improve the weather-forecasting systems of the neighbouring countries. Although this programme will enable these countries to also receive the warning messages, your rapporteur believes that these measures are only indirectly related to the setting up of a tsunami warning system. Considering the scarcity of funds so far allocated by France for tsunami prevention, this money could have been spent more wisely. Finally, although Météo France's role in the region - in particular, within the framework of the cyclone-warning system - has been strengthened, neither the seismic system nor the tide gauge system is completely operational, even though both constitute pillars of the tsunami warning system.
* 54 Météo France has received €1,472 million from the Directorate General for International Cooperation and Development, to be distributed among its various partners; CEA has directly received €444,000 for the updating of its seismic stations in Indonesia; finally, the National Committee of the IOC has also directly received €50,000.
* 55 Those of La Réunion and Canberra.