SENAT
Report n° 117 (2007-2008) by M. Roland COURTEAU, Senator (for the parliament office for the evaluation of scientific and technological choices) - Appendix to the minutes of the 7 December 2007 session
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2. The desire for an effective tsunami warning and mitigation system that covers all basins
The international community estimated that setting up an effective warning system for the Indian Ocean, the Caribbean and the Mediterranean required, on the one hand, the creation of intergovernmental groups for each basin (following the example of the ICG/Pacific) and, on the other hand, increased scientific research to better understand tsunamis in these regions.
a) The creation of three new intergovernmental groups
Following the tsunami of 26 December 2004, international cooperation grew considerably in order to establish a worldwide tsunami warning and mitigation system. The impetus came during the 3 rd World Conference on Disaster Reduction, which took place in Kobe (Japan) in January 2005: a plenary session was dedicated to the creation of a warning mechanism for tsunamis in the Indian Ocean.
Taking into account its experience in the Pacific, UNESCO was put in charge of coordinating the set up of the tsunami warning system for the Indian Ocean. The IOC organized two ministerial-level meetings in February and March of 2005, which were attended by most countries of the Indian Ocean zone.
In addition, a "tsunami unit" was set up within the IOC in January 2005, to support the actions of the newly created intergovernmental coordination groups. In particular, this unit organized the initial preparatory meetings, as well as the evaluation visits in more than 18 Indian-Ocean countries.
In June 2005, the 23 rd General Assembly of the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission adopted three resolutions for the creation of three regional coordination groups:
- The Intergovernmental Coordination Group for the Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning and Mitigation System (ICG/IOTWS), which groups together 28 countries, including France, which is present in this basin via La Réunion and Mayotte.
- The Intergovernmental Coordination Group of the Tsunami Early Warning and Mitigation System in the North Eastern Atlantic, Mediterranean and Connected Seas (ICG/NEAMTWS), made up of 64 countries, including France.
- The Intergovernmental Coordination Group for the Tsunami Warning System in the Caribbean and Adjacent Regions (ICG/Caribbean-TWS), made up of 27 countries, including France, which is present in this basin via Guadeloupe, Martinique, French Guiana and Saint-Martin.
The final structure of these three warning systems should be identical and based largely on the Pacific warning system.
The structure of the tsunami warning system
Source: IOC
Each country is responsible for collecting and processing the national data from its seismic stations and tide gauges. Each country must also ensure that this data is accessible in real time to all members of the warning system. In addition, the countries must carry out the necessary computer simulations to better understand this hazard, to identify the exposure zones, and to establish tsunami and inundation maps.
The data thus collected is transmitted in real time either directly or by the countries to one or several regional tsunami watch centres. 28 ( * ) These centres are responsible for analyzing the earthquake data (localization of the earthquake and estimation of its depth, magnitude, date and origin time), in order to determine if a tsunami risk indeed exists. If the answer if yes, the regional centres send a warning message indicating the hour of arrival and the concerned zones to the Focal Points of the member states. The regional centres will also use the data relative to the sea level to confirm the presence of a tsunami and either refine their forecasts or cancel the warning.
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Focal Points and National Contacts for the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission's warning system.
The Focal Point is the person to contact, reachable 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, and chosen by the ICG-member government to receive and rapidly send tsunami information. The IOC advises countries to choose one or several bodies, rather than persons. The Focal Point receives the bulletins and warnings issued by the regional warning centres and passes them on to the relevant emergency services (usually the civil protection services). As far as France is concerned, Météo France serves as the Focal Point in the Caribbean Sea and the Indian Ocean, while LDG/Pamatai serves as the Pacific zone's Focal Point. However, France does not have an official Focal Point in the Mediterranean, even though CEA would be the natural choice.
The ICG Tsunami National Contact is the person designated by the ICG-member state to act as its representative in the coordination of international tsunami warning and prevention activities. This person is a key player in the national warning system programme. He or she may be the Tsunami Warning Focal Point, someone belonging to the country's national disaster management organization, a member of a technical or scientific body, or a representative of some other tsunami warning-related organization. In the Indian Ocean, the Caribbean and the Pacific, this position is filled, respectively, by a representative of Météo France, a representative of IPGP ("Paris Global Physics Institute") and a representative of CEA. As of June 2007, France no longer has a National Contact for the Mediterranean zone. Source: UNESCO/IOC |
Finally, the Focal Points are responsible for transmitting the regional centres' warning bulletin(s) to the national authorities, so that the latter may take the necessary measures: implementation of the specialized tsunami emergency plan (see the analysis of the warning system in French Polynesia, below), which mobilizes all parties liable to be involved in preventing the tsunami and in crisis management after the tsunami; warning the population; evacuating the beaches and coasts.
At this point, your rapporteur would like to emphasize the fact that this system will only be truly effective when the national civil protection services have access to precise information on the expected effects of the announced tsunami. As was explained above, these effects are very difficult to predict, insofar as they depend on many different factors: the position of the source, the tsunami's directivity, the coastal bathymetry and topography. As a result, the regional centre's general message will have to be refined by a national body. This assumes an organization in France that is capable of analyzing the issued bulletins and comparing the current event with computer simulations, so as to specify those zones truly exposed. Otherwise, the national authorities will be faced with two types of risk: a false warning and the under estimation of the risk if the tsunami amplification effects of certain zones are not taken into account (see the high exposure of the Marquesas Islands compared to that of the Society Islands, including Tahiti).
In addition, the tsunamis liable to affect France's Mediterranean and Caribbean coasts are local or regional tsunamis, resulting in very short reaction times (between a few minutes and a half hour). Therefore, it is essential that the scientific organization in charge of advising the public authorities on the seriousness and localization of the tsunami risk be continuously on-duty - 24 hours a day, 7 days a week - and enjoy real-time access to the seismic data and sea-level measurements.
The three intergovernmental coordination groups have committed themselves to laying the foundations of a warning system by the end of 2007 (nomination of the member states' Focal Points and National Contacts; designation of regional and national warning centres). By 2010, the warning systems should be operational and all basins should be covered.
Each intergovernmental group has established an action plan and created specialized work groups that are meant to meet with one another on a regular basis. For example, the ICG/Caribbean-TWS has created the following four groups:
- Tsunamis hazard assessment;
- Monitoring and detection system. This group is divided into two subgroups specialized in seismology and sea-level monitoring;
- Warning and communication;
- Emergency and training
Depending on the region, a yearly or half-yearly meeting is organized, to record the progress made by the member states and workgroups, and to define the group's future actions.
Other initiatives of the international community should strengthen the effectiveness of the tsunami warning and prevention systems.
These systems should rely, in the midterm, on the sharing of terrestrial observation means: the Third Earth Observation Summit, held in February 2005, agreed to a 10-year implementation plan for a Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS 29 ( * ) ).
At the European level, this system will be able to depend on the GMES (Global Monitoring of Environment and Security) initiative.
The GMES initiative
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Initiator |
The European Space Agency, the European Union. |
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Participants |
The European Space Agency, the European Union (the European Commission and member states). |
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Status |
Currently being developed. |
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Objectives |
Create an autonomous, multi-level (local, regional, global) European monitoring system for the environment and security, in support of European policy (on the environment, agriculture, etc.) and the EU's international commitments. |
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Implementation of initial services |
2008 |
Source: CNES
According to the information obtained by your rapporteur, the last general assembly of the IOC in June 2007 sanctioned the idea of cooperation between the four regional tsunami warning systems, as well as the necessity to integrate the tsunami warning system into a more global system that would encompass the warning and mitigation of all oceanic risks (tempests, cyclonal swells, typhoons, cyclones, rising sea level).
Furthermore, the policy of increasing public awareness and education with regard to the tsunami risk has authority to be carried out within the framework of the International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (ISDR).
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International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (ISDR) This initiative, supported by the United Nations (UN), is meant to help communities to better withstand natural disasters by considering risk reduction an essential part of sustainable development. The strategy favours four lines of action: - Raise public awareness of the notions of natural-disaster risk, vulnerability and reduction. - Encourage decision makers at every level to take measures to predict and mitigate the impact of natural disasters. - Encourage interdisciplinary and intersectorial partnerships all over the world, for a better understanding of the risks and of the measures under consideration. - Further scientific understanding to reduce the risks. To carry out its programme, the ISDR relies on two organizations: The ISDR's special team plays the primary role in the elaboration of disaster-prevention policies. This team, managed by the Deputy Secretary General of the UN's Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, gathers together 25 UN, international, regional and civil-society organizations. Twice yearly, it meets in Geneva to debate problems of shared and global interest related to disaster prevention (climate variability, rapid warning systems, vulnerability and risk analysis, fires in wild areas, droughts, etc.). The ISDR "interorganizational" secretariat serves as an international exchange centre for information on disaster prevention. It organizes public awareness campaigns and publishes articles, revues and other tools to promote natural disaster prevention. Source: UN |
Finally, the rapid and reliable transmission of tsunami warning system data demands close cooperation with the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). This United Nations body specialized in meteorology manages the Global Telecommunication System (GTS), whose objective is to rapidly collect, exchange and transmit meteorological observation data. The GTS is used to transmit tide gauge data and warning messages. 30 ( * )
* 28 The varying terminology used by the three new intergovernmental groups can lead to some confusion. For example, in the Indian Ocean, the term used is "Regional Tsunami Watch Provider", while the Caribbean zone has up until now borrowed the ICG/Pacific term: "regional tsunami warning centre". According to the information gathered by your rapporteur, regardless of these formal differences, each regional centre is supposed to carry out the same missions for its geographic zone: issue a message indicating the source of origin, the possibility of a tsunami having been provoked, and (if affirmative) the estimated time of arrival and the regions liable to be affected. However, the countries remain responsible for the actual warning (in terms of informing and protecting the population).
* 29 Responsible for federating all observation resources, in order to better understand the climate and the environment and help predict natural disasters. Its marine component is the Global Sea Level Observing System (GLOSS).
* 30 More bulky seismic data is transmitted via a different system [in general, via the Very Small Aperture Terminal (VSAT) network, which uses geostationary satellites, or the more robust VAST system; the General Pocket Radio Service (GPRS) and Internet play a secondary, backup role, due to their being very "unwieldy"].